Part I of an energy and research discussion for my parents
Abundant energy has shaped the modern world. It has enabled wonderful innovations such as rapid and affordable travel, vaccines produced on an industrial scale, fertilizer for our crops, an elevated standard of living for billions of people, and the Information Age just to name a few. Fossil fuel makes up the majority of the abundant, easily accessible energy we have consumed to get here. While our standards of living have been elevated, the aggressive burning of fossil fuels has positioned us on a path for severe climate change .
Current technologies exist that can significantly reduce our global energy use while delivering what energy is still needed via clean, carbon free sources. And, yes, this can be done while bringing power to the one billion people currently living in energy poverty.
A Brief History of Energy Use
Energy use has skyrocketed over the past two centuries. Over this same period, the composition of fuels and power sources we use changed significantly. Prior to the 1850s, wood was the main fuel source. For the first half of the 1900s, coal dominated. But coal was quickly outpaced by petroleum with the rise of the automobile. The 1970s saw the introduction of natural gas and nuclear power on a large scale.
At the start of the 1970s, petroleum was set to continue its exponential climb. Instead, the global energy market was struck by the oil crisis of 1973. The U.S. Federal Government enacted sweeping programs to beat down energy use while keeping the economy humming along. This was the introduction of energy efficiency as a staple of the U.S. energy strategy .
It is difficult to disentangle the effects of a growing population, an expanding economy, and an economy transitioning away from heavy industry in a single chart. The above chart shows us that the “Energy Intensity” or energy used to create economic value has been decreasing in the U.S. for many years. However, in the 1970s, after enacting aggressive efficiency policies, Energy Intensity fell faster than before.
Another way of viewing energy use is considering the amount of energy used per capita. Historically, the the total energy use per person in the U.S. increased every year until the 1970s. Since then, use per person has been steady or slightly declining.
It is worth noting that the U.S. has outsourced a significant portion of its heavy industry as it transitions towards a service based economy. Regardless, energy use per capita and energy intensity are both helpful indicators of the efficacy of coordinated energy efficiency policy at the national level.
A re-invigoration of coordinated energy efficiency policies would help further decrease Energy Intensity and reduce the energy which we need to supply with carbon free sources.
Carbon Free Energy
Nuclear energy and large scale hydroelectric power have been staples of the U.S. electric system for many decades (see first figure). Solar and wind power are relatively new to the U.S. energy portfolio. These four technologies, plus biofuels, make up two different categories of carbon free energy.
- Predictable power sources who’s power output can be increased or decreased as needed (nuclear, hydro, biofuels)
- Intermittent sources who’s output is controlled by weather, not customer needs (solar and wind).
The above chart from the EIA shows carbon free energy production by source and is part of their annual energy review. Solar and wind energy have begun a rapid rise since the turn of the millennium.
The rapid increase in solar and wind energy is on a collision course with the way electric utilities traditionally operate their grid. Intermittent solar and wind challenge operators to deliver continuous, reliable power despite their fluctuations. Batteries and other storage technologies are being researched, developed, and continuously improved to help smooth out these difficulties.
Currently, in places with lots of installed solar power, electricity is stored in batteries when it is sunny and discharged back into the grid when large clouds pass over, reducing solar panel output, or during the night. Many new wind power installations also include batteries to help smooth out fluctuations.
To enable a large scale energy transition away from carbon intense sources towards carbon free sources, we need to figure out the right mix of intermittent renewable energy, other clean sources, and storage technologies to create a reliable grid. This is the central focus of my current research working with Ken Calderia at Carnegie Science.
-  IPCC Working Group 3: Fifth Assessment Report “Summary for Policy Makers” https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR_Ch1_Our_Globally_Changing_Climate.pdf
-  U.S. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Energy Intensity Indicators”, Accessed 14 October 2019, https://www.energy.gov/eere/analysis/energy-intensity-indicators